Moscow Pre-election survey: the most important numbers for democrats. Elections in the State Duma: Russian forecasts are the latest polls for the election in the State Duma

The initiative survey was conducted on July 22-25, 2016 on the representative All-Russian sample of urban and rural population among 1600 people aged 18 and older in 137 settlements of 48 regions of the country.The study is carried out at home by the respondent using personal interview.The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number of respondents along with the data of previous polls.

Statistical error in sampling 1600 people(With a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators close to 50%

2.9% for indicators close to 25%

2.0% for indicators close to 10%

1.5% for indicators close to 5%

Which of the following statements the most accurately reflects your intention to vote on the upcoming elections to the State Duma of Russia? (one answer)

	sen.	sen.	sen.	sen.	sen.	jan.	feb.	mar.	apr.	may.	jun.	jul. 16
I am sure that I will not vote in the elections to the State Duma	25	19	16	19	11	11	12	13	14	14	15	14
I doubt that I will vote	13	12	12	14	12	10	12	11	10	12	13	11
I do not know, I will vote or not	17	12	14	15	17	24	20	22	25	26	20	25
Most likely, I will vote in the elections to the State Duma	18	16	22	28	32	30	30	32	26	25	27	26
Quite exactly, I will vote in this election (of course, if only until this point nothing happens to me)	24	37	33	20	24	21	21	19	21	19	21	20
Difficult to answer	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	3	5	5	4	5

(one answer; closed question; in% of all survey participants)

	jan.16.	feb.16	mar.16	apr.16.	may.16	jun. sixteen	jul.16.
United Russia (D. Medvedev)	39	40	40	42	35	35	39
	10	10	13	10	14	11	10
	5	6	6	7	9	9	10
	3	3	3	3	2	3	3
Parnas (M. Kasyanov)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1
Apple (E.Slabunova)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1
	–	–	<1	1	1	1	1
Youth Party (V. Popov)*	–	–	–	–	–	–	<1
Civil force (K. Babyanin)	–	–	–	–	1	1	<1
Growth Party (B. Titov)	–	–	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
	1	<1	1	1	<1	1	<1
Motherland (A. Zhuravlev)	<1	1	1	1	<1	<1	<1
	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
Patriots of Russia (Medigin)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
Others	2	1	1	2	1	<1	<1
	–	1	1	2	1	2	2
No know for which party would be (a) would vote	–	10	11	8	11	11	11
Did not (a) would vote	19	16	12	10	12	14	11
No know, became (a) to vote or not	–	11	10	12	12	11	10
Difficult to answer	22	–	–	–	–	–	–

If it was in the next Sunday elections to the State Duma, would you participate in these elections, and if so, for which party would you vote for? (one answer; closed question; in %% from those respondents who are ready to vote in these elections and decided on the party)

	jan.16.	feb.16	mar.16	apr.16.	may.16	jun.16.	jul.16.
United Russia (D. Medvedev)	65	64	59	60	53	55	57
Communist Party (CPRF) (Zyuganov)	16	17	19	15	21	18	15
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) (V. Zhirinovsky)	8	10	10	10	14	14	15
Fair Russia (S. Mironov)	5	4	5	5	4	5	5
Parnas (M. Kasyanov)	2	1	1	1	1	1	2
Apple (E.Slabunova)	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1	1
Communists of Russia (M. Suurakin)	–	–	1	2	1	1	1
Youth Party (V. Popov)*	–	–	–	–	–	–	<1
Civil force (K. Babyanin)	–	–	–	–	1	1	<1
Growth Party (B. Titov)	–	–	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
Russian Ecological Party "Green" (A. Panfilov)	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
Civil Platform (R.Shaichutdinov)	1	<1	1	1	<1	1	<1
Motherland (A. Zhuravlev)	1	1	1	1	<1	1	<1
Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice (E. Arthuh)	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
Patriots of Russia (Medigin)	1	<1	<1	<1	1	<1	<1
Others	2	2	1	1	1	<1	<1
Spoiled (a) / bore (la) would be a bulletin	–	2	2	3	2	3	2

* For the purpose of the experiment, the respondent on the card among the list of real parties was offered and fictional, who scored 0.3% of the vote from all respondents.

Interests of which layers of the population are expressed, in your opinion, the next parties?

	Communist Party	UNITED RUSSIA	LDPR	Fair Russia	APPLE	PARNASSUS
	6	30	9	6	12	12
	6	23	9	6	9	7
	8	26	11	7	7	5
	3	28	7	4	2	1
Cultural and scientific elite	7	8	7	8	7	2
	15	13	16	13	6	3
	17	8	11	15	7	3
	31	8	17	15	3	2
	23	3	9	10	2	1
All without exception	15	25	19	14	8	5
Difficult to answer	24	15	27	37	55	71

Data in dynamics

Interests of which layers of the population expresses, in your opinion, united Russia? (perhaps several answers)

	jong.03.	jan.04	oct.07	jul 11.	jul.16.
"Oligarchs", bankers, large entrepreneurs	18	18	21	40	30
"Silovikov": workers of the special services, army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	12	22	16	32	28
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	16	19	20	34	26
All without exception	5	14	16	20	25
"Director Corps": leaders of large enterprises	15	19	19	32	23
"Middle class": people with income above average	17	22	15	16	13
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	10	11	12	12	8
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, fault workers	16	19	15	11	8
Cultural and scientific elite	4	5	7	6	8
	5	5	4	3	3
Difficult to answer	23	13	20	10	15

Interests of which layers of the population expresses, in your opinion, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation? (perhaps several answers)

	jong.03.	jan.04	oct.07	jul 11.	jul.16.
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, fault workers	37	39	26	40	31
The poorest layers of the population, unemployed, disadvantaged people	29	27	20	30	23
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	15	16	11	20	17
"Middle class": people with income above average	10	12	8	14	15
All without exception	4	6	9	8	15
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	6	8	4	7	8
Cultural and scientific elite	2	3	3	4	7
"Director Corps": leaders of large enterprises	5	5	5	6	6
"Oligarchs", bankers, large entrepreneurs	4	7	5	6	6
"Silovikov": workers of the special services, army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	2	3	3	3	3
Difficult to answer	22	21	38	23	24

Interests of which layers of the population expresses, in your opinion, LDPR? (perhaps several answers)

	jong.03.	jan.04	oct.07	jul 11.	jul.16.
All without exception	4	9	9	14	19
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, fault workers	9	22	9	17	17
"Middle class": people with income above average	9	15	10	15	16
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	12	11	12	13	11
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	4	8	4	10	11
"Oligarchs", bankers, large entrepreneurs	13	8	13	14	9
"Director Corps": leaders of large enterprises	10	9	9	10	9
The poorest layers of the population, unemployed, disadvantaged people	5	14	5	9	9
"Silovikov": workers of the special services, army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	10	12	6	7	7
Cultural and scientific elite	3	3	3	5	7
Difficult to answer	39	29	44	26	27

The interests of which layers of the population expresses, in your opinion, fair Russia? (perhaps several answers)

	jan.04	oct.07	jul 11.	jul.16.
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, fault workers	29	14	19	15
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	15	8	18	15
All without exception	9	7	9	14
"Middle class": people with income above average	15	10	15	13
The poorest layers of the population, unemployed, disadvantaged people	15	8	8	10
Cultural and scientific elite	5	4	9	8
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	4	9	9	7
"Director Corps": leaders of large enterprises	3	8	9	6
"Oligarchs", bankers, large entrepreneurs	3	7	7	6
"Silovikov": workers of the special services, army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	7	4	3	4
Difficult to answer	34	47	37	37

Interests of which layers of the population expresses, in your opinion, Parnas? (perhaps several answers)

	jul 11.	jul.16.
"Oligarchs", bankers, large entrepreneurs	8	12
"Director Corps": leaders of large enterprises	4	7
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	3	5
All without exception	3	5
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	2	3
"Middle class": people with income above average	2	3
Cultural and scientific elite	1	2
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, fault workers	2	2
The poorest segments of the population, unemployed, disadvantaged people	1	1
"Silovikov": workers of the special services, army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	1	1
Difficult to answer	79	71

Interests of which layers of the population expresses, in your opinion, an apple? (perhaps several answers)

	jong.03.	jan.04	oct.07	jul 11.	jul.16.
Oligarchs, bankers, major entrepreneurs	9	13	11	10	12
"Director Corps": leaders of large enterprises	9	10	9	5	9
All without exception	2	4	4	5	8
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	8	8	7	5	7
Cultural and scientific elite	16	19	12	11	7
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	26	29	11	11	7
"Middle class": people with income above average	19	21	10	7	6
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, fault workers	7	10	3	3	3
"Silovikov": workers of the special services, army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	3	6	3	3	2 VKontakte

The country passed the election congresses, the election campaign began. Well, the sociological service of FBK decided to make the first poll in this political season with the rankings of parties.

I want to know from which numbers this campaign begins, and you will probably be interested in non-commissioned sociology.

Not to say that everything is in great attacks from the upcoming elections, although 56% of citizens know exactly what the elections in the DG:

Many social skins traditionally show a high jaw and this one has not exceeded. In 2011, the official appearance was about 60%, and the real, purified from the stuff, probably in the area of \u200b\u200b50%.

Almost half of the voters did not decide for whom will vote. These voices of "undefined" are allocated between the parties, as a result, not necessarily in the same proportion as the votes of those voters who already confidently declare the support of a particular party. The practice of past years shows that the result of uniform Russia is closer to the election falls.

In general, the results of our survey turned out to be quite close to the results of the last survey of the Levada Center, except that they predict a very low turnout.

If you make an amendment to the difference in the appearance, then all interesting things coincide:

LDPR challenges second place in the Communists;

Wed balances on the verge of barrier passage;

The non-Parliamentary parties are not even close to the opportunity to become parliamentary.

However, our survey was still on the eve of the congresses. Now we want to spend one more and explore party ratings more carefully taking into account clarity about who participates in the lists. Find out who people are generally known from those who lead their parties.

Therefore, we gain volunteers that will help us with this survey. As usual: with us training and strict following the most advanced sociological techniques, with you - conscientious work under the control of experienced people.

Come, help us supply citizens with the necessary sociological data and personally make sure that they have the most honest.

Political scientists, electoral lawyers and other election experts gave forecasts to the upcoming Duma elections and recommendations to their participants. Home Intrigue - who from the parties will be able to take advantage of the discontent in connection with the crisis. And here experts predict "bonuses" for the Communist Party. However, there is an option that "United Russia" will even strengthen its position.

The "main developments" of the 2016 elections were discussed at the conference of professional organizers of election campaigns at the site of the Civil Society Development Fund (Forgo).

With which the electorate will have to work, the general director of the Valery Fedorov said. According to the latest composure, the number of Russians who consider themselves victims of the crisis, from January increased from 47 to 60%. Interestingly, the level of support for the federal center because of this suffered less than the overall rating of regional authorities. And the support level of the president remained unchanged throughout the year - about 80%. As for the regional authorities, they lost 11% for the year - their overall level of support requested to 48%, "feds" lost 7% (up to 60%).

There was no significant request for the "political alternative". Citizens are arranged by the current parties - a few percent before the campaign began the Ratings of the Communist Party and Fair Russia.

As for the regions of the population, here VTsiom noted an interesting trend. In the foreground, external threat and political instability, and not internal economic.

"People are afraid of protest psychologically, remembering Maidan," said the President of the "Center of Polittechnologies" Igor Bunin. - They reason: "Do not give God, we will have this." And to warm up the protest moods practically no one.

However, there is still a chance to take advantage of discontent in connection with economic deterioration. This will be attended by all representatives of the parliamentary opposition to play in varying degrees. However, experts were called as the main "beneficiary" of the Communist Party. The Duma opposition will try to "beat the government and support the President," the head of the Consulting Company "Baxter Group" Dmitry Gusev argued. The goal will be the political "erosion" at the lower regional levels. In "Socillae", according to his assessment, there is a chance to rise from 5-6 to 10-12%, a little can "earn" and LDPR.

The general director of the Agency of the Political and Economic Communications Dmitry Orlov agreed that the Communist Party of the Communist Party, as well as the "Esiers" try to settle the protest sentiment, but the chances that they would succeed, are small. The chance of the Communist Party of the Communist Party - 30%, from "Corpoles" - only 15%. "Motherland" will try to play on the left flank, but the chance of success, by Orlov, only 10%. The same chance will be, if you rely on the nationalists. The barrier is five percent anyway not to overcome without strong leaders, the expert reasoned.

The Orlov championship gave the party of power, which will collect more than 60%, even strengthening the position compared to the 2011 elections. The main "Polyana" for maneuvers is single-mandate districts.

"The level of legitimacy of the system is large enough, and the protest moods if they are observed, then at the regional level," the eagles summarized.

However, "United Russia" to implement a good scenario must work. Among the conditions - the support on the real leaders of public opinion, emphasis on the anti-corruption agenda, the legitimacy of the campaign, said the political scientist.

The head of Forto Konstantin Kostin believes that "EP" will manage to earn an absolute majority (more than 50%). He agrees that in single-member districts the result will be better. "Esram", according to his forecast, will not be able to play on social discontent - any slogans on this topic will work for the Communist Party. As for the non-parliamentary parties, they will appear in the Duma only as single-mandaters (candidates from the "Motherland" and "Patriots").

"In any case, there will be no standard solutions and slogans," Costin summarized. - In order for you to hear, you should be different. "

From Monday, September 12, the law prohibits the publication of the results of social skins and other forecasts about the outcome of the elections. What forecasts give domestic researchers a week before the election?

Let's start with the forecast that the participants in the pre-election project "Davydov. INDEX". Let me remind you, this is a consolidated forecast that summarizes the opinions of 250 experts from all regions of Russia. During the study, at least 3 participants in each region are interviewed. Each of them gets the opportunity to give a forecast for the appearance of elections to the State Duma and the possible results of party participation in them. As a result, the resulting average arithmetic, derived from the set of forecasts. According to experts, the appearance of the elections will be 48%, and only four "traditional" parliamentary parties will be included in the new State Duma:

And now about the forecasts of other researchers.

According to the head of the Valery Fedorova, Valery Fedorova, the appearance of the election will be 50-54%: "The process of" inclusion "of voters into a political agenda occurs. We fix it. That is, if in June, most did not know at all when we have elections, just heard something, now awareness increases. Obviously, the more closer to the election , the more people will turn on this topic. "

At the same time, Fedorov notes that following the election, none of the non-Parliamentary parties in the State Duma will fall: "We are not visible to overcome the chance of overcome the five percent barrier ... They have to do something unimaginable such to now jump over the passage barrier.<...> From the non-Parliamentary parties, there is no significant chances of "apple", "homeland" and the party of pensioners. When I talk about significant chances, I do not mean overcoming a five percent barrier. I mean - score more than 2% of the vote. "

The most acute, according to experts of the WTCIOM, the struggle will be in several regions: "Irkutsk region, of course. Let me remind you, there is a communist's governor, not so long ago chosen, all the mayors of United Russia. Of course," United Russia "would like to take a revenge certain and consolidate its position. Novosibirsk region - there is a reverse situation, Anatoly elbow mayor is a communist. He, accordingly, leads to the communists of the whole area. " In addition, Fedors mentioned the Republic of Mari El and a few "Very interesting" Districts in Moscow.

As for the forecast of the VTsIOM for parliamentary parties, then Fedorov does not give accurate numbers: "There is no doubt that three of the four current parliamentary parties will retain their representative office in the Duma." United Russia "will be the winner of these elections in any scenario, gaining votes at least twice as much as the nearest pursuer. The second and third place will occupy the Communist Party and LDPR. until it is not entirely clear in what sequence. Now, let's remind, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in front, in the second position - the LDPR (I mean on mandates in the current State Duma). Now we can say that the LDPR does not fall below the third place and, in Principle, they have a good chance for the second.<...>

As for the fourth parliamentary party, "Fair Russia" ... I remind you, she scored 13% in the 2011 elections.<...> Today, circumstances play, rather, against them. Therefore, now "Fair Russia" is struggling not for leadership in the State Duma, but in order to get there at all. And they have a good chance to translate a five percent barrier. Maybe even score 7-8-9%. "

Political analyst, Professor of the Department of Philosophy, Sociology and Political Science BGPU Dmitry Mikhailichenko (Ufa) skeptically assesses the forecast of the VTsiOM, arguing that small parties will still enter the new State Duma: "Of course, the parliamentary parties remain favorites. In my opinion, still some non-Parlamentary parties will be included in the State Duma after the elections. This opportunity to the non-Parliamentary parties, first of all, give one-one-one-mandate district. Perhaps the" Growth Part "and" Apple "will be able to To get to the State Dumu. It is clear that, taking into account the heterogeneous composition of "Fair Russia" in different regions, this party has less chances. To date, the following configuration is formed: in the first place "United Russia", followed by "Communist Party" and "LDPR", Fairways still marked markedly behind these parties. It is very difficult to say whether the "apple" will pass or not. In some regions, this party will still gain the right number of votes. "

Political analyst, sociologist, coordinator of the Civil Initiative Committee in the Arkhangelsk Region Andrei Churakov agrees with the forecast of the WTCIOM, but only partly: "With the All-Russian Center for Studying Public Opinion (WTCIOM), it is difficult to argue. They are based on the methodology that has been working for many years and is very serious. As for the forecasts made by the center, which I head, then ten days before the elections, we The colleagues did other conclusions. The probability of passing the fifth party to the State Duma is currently still preserved. At the same time, the main issue that will affect the voting results is the turnout. If the turnout in the whole country exceeds 55-57% indicators, then, of course, the probability The passage of the non-Parliamentary parties will be seriously promoted. If the turnout in Russia is in an area of \u200b\u200b45-47%, then the scenario that Valery Fedorov says.<...>

The numbers that quantitative sociology give today demonstrate that the likelihood of "apple", the "growth party" and other non-parliamentary parties is quite low. On the other hand, if all the same, a large number of Russian voters on September 18 will find it necessary to fulfill its civil debt and come to the plots, that is, the probability that the figure that will increase with the advent of voters will affect the passage of non-Parliamentary parties to the State Duma.<...> The current election campaign has one important feature. In fact, in the information field, which today is oversaturated by the most diverse news, strongly emotionally painted by political information, it is clearly seen that more than half of the Russian voters will be determined with the choice of only a day or two to September 18 or directly on the site itself. "

As the director of research on the IPEP Foundation, Alexander Raughty, the small parties in the elections will be able to pull out some of the number of votes, but their cumulative result is unlikely to exceed 15%: "As for the outflow of votes to small parties, in my opinion, there were serious concerns that the active participation of small parties will lead to the fact that a large number of voter votes will be lost ... I think that in the current campaign, the small parties will raise no more than 15%, It can be 13-15%, and this threat (lost votes) is not implemented. "

According to the forecast of the Foundation "Public Opinion" on September 2, three parliamentary parties take place in the State Duma, with a high probability of leaving "overboard" Socillars, the rounded result of which was 5% on the Obloghnaya mark:

The most pessimistic for the "Party of Power" the forecast gives the "Levada Center". True, in this scenario, the EP confidently leads by the number of votes. But cf is as well as in the previous forecast, balances on the verge.

Until the September elections, less time remains to the lower chamber of the Russian parliament. However, this does not mean that the leaders of the races behind the chair in the State Duma will be able to keep their "places" engaged in them all the time of disputes, battles and election discussions. Already "traditionally ruling" united Russia slightly weakened its position: too many voters were disappointed in politics by this party under the leadership of D. Medvedev. Anonymous social networks conducted on social networks and forums show a high percentage of communist support (Communist Party, led by G. Zyuganov and LDPR (Leader - V. Zhirinovsky). "Apple", traditionally "left" party, also in Favor, however, Its supporters are incomparably less. Today, most of the active supporters of the EP and Skeptics do not doubt who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016. Rates are made to United Russia, and to lose her and, according to experts, and on forecasts of political analysts, simply unrealistic. For Loss of EP Communist Party or LDPR should score at least 25-30% of the votes.

Who will win the elections in the State Duma in 2016 - the opinion of experts

According to the majority of experts, the party in the State Duma will win the party of United Russia in 2016. Given that he heads her "second steering" country Dmitry Medvedev, as well as taking into account the most powerful financing of EP, it is uningency destined to get a larger percentage of chairs in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Western analysts prophesy mass discontent Russians on the results of the voting on September 18. In their opinion, the cause of unrest and even protest shares can be the falsification of elections. At the same time, the Westerners argue that in the regions to enact the results of voting voting will be easier than in Moscow and St. Petersburg electoral districts. American experts generally talk about the "New Revolution in Russia". As the US political scientists believes, after the start of the newly elected State Duma, the Russians immediately "will not like" its decisions. Russian experts, on the contrary, do not doubt the transparency of elections as a whole, allowing discrepancies between the true figures of the voting results and the final announced. Wait and see. The current, sixth convocation of the Russian parliament, worked out his term. Vacation in the Duma begin after the last meeting of all deputies on June 24. After that, in September 2016, the 18th, the list of new chosen parties will be defined. The composition of the Duma chosen in 2016 will become the seventh. The figure of the Sixth composition of the Duma will receive compensation for early termination of work. Deputies deprived by the voting mandates will be deprived of these payments.

Who will win the elections in the State Duma in 2016 - forecast

Since today the United Russia is still leading, and the Communist Party of the Communist Party, and the PRD, and LDPR, can be said in the top three, and the Liberal Chamber of Parliament. Even more than six months ago, forecasts about who will win the elections in 2016 were talking about one thing: EP, Communist Party and LDPR (in such a sequence). Following the troika leaders, fair Russia is coming, failing to achieve such a rating earlier, in the 2011 elections. Then half of the votes were given to the EP, just over 19% - the Communists, and almost 12% - liberal democrats. This sequence and, respectively, the place and the number of chairs in the Duma can now change. V. Zhirinovsky actively supports the policies of the President and demonstrates its compreative attitude towards EP. Even the rewriting between the communists and liberal democrats is no longer so frequent and not so frighteningly extravagant. Such "liberal", a soft policy, the leader of the LDPR may have a greater number of votes for its party and, possibly, overtake the communists. By regions of Russia, the average percentage of unified Russia's support is about 50%. If there are fourteen parties fighting for seats in the Duma, this is definitely explicit leadership and one step to victory on September 18, 2016.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016 - the social support

Today, the social skins are concerning the one who wins the elections to the State Duma 2016, not only specialists of sociological centers. Vkontakte, in particular, the group was registered, the participants of which are engaged in active discussions of the upcoming elections on September 18, forecasts, polls. In particular, on the main page, all registered users of VK can take part in mini-social neighborhood. To date, a large percentage of survey participants supports LDPR. Many "sick" for the Communist Party of the Communist Party, EP and Parnas. Interestingly, the choice of anonymous respondents (not only in VC) is slightly different from the opinion of experts and political scientists. If the elections were held now, in the Duma would have been accurately passed (the sequence of the results of the social skins was observed) LDPR, EP, PARNAS and CPRF.